Workforce Planning When Nothing Goes as Planned

Workforce planning is often treated like an HR obsession at year-end - a spreadsheet exercise that line managers quietly roll their eyes at.

And honestly, I get it. In environments as volatile as ours, planning six months ahead already feels ambitious. Projects shift, funding changes, contracts get delayed, and priorities flip overnight. Unless you’ve secured long-term contracts - or run a monopoly - predicting demand feels almost impossible.

But that doesn’t mean planning is useless. It just means you plan differently. You don’t need a crystal ball. You need some visibility.

Start with the basics

• What’s your churn? The rate at which you lose and replace people.

• What critical skills keep your business running?

• Where are your single points of failure? The people or roles that, if lost, would paralyse a project.

That’s workforce planning - practical risk management for your people. Because the best time to notice a gap isn’t when it’s already hurting you.

Then connect the dots

Between your business goals and your people. Ask simple questions - but answer them honestly:

• What work is coming up? If you’re not sure yet, think in scenarios: what’s the most pessimistic case, the most optimistic, and what’s realistic in between?

• What skills will we need? Think about where you want to go, and who will take you there.

• Which skills can we develop internally, and which will we need to bring in?

• What’s our plan if someone leaves?

No magic. No forecasting models. Just a clear view of what’s ahead and what it will take to get there. It all starts with clearly defined business goals that cascade and align across teams.

The familiar pain for most managers

The exercise is necessary. Does it mean you promise to hire X new employees and sign the pledge with your blood? Of course not.

But doing it forces you to look at reality. And that’s the hard part.

It’s difficult when you have to say no to projects because you don’t have enough people to deliver. It’s even harder when you can’t hire because cash flow is tight. You’re stuck between capacity and liquidity - a familiar pain for most managers.

When the questions get sharper

• What training and development will help current staff grow into the roles we’ll soon need?

• What skills should we outsource - the ones too rare, too temporary, or too expensive to build internally?

• Who will help us hire - replacing those who leave and bringing in new profiles?

Speaking of hiring, I’ve heard it countless times during my years as a recruiter:

“We’ll stop using external staffing agencies. We’ll do everything in-house.”

Sure. Until the next urgent vacancy lands. Then suddenly, those “few thousands” you saved start to look like a bargain compared to what you’re losing - time, delivery, and credibility.

Internal talent teams are great - until the role needs more than a job post and a prayer. Some searches demand expertise, networks, and time you don’t have.

In summary

Workforce planning is far more than bureaucracy - it’s the uncomfortable mirror every company should look into at least once a year.

It’s not about predicting the future. It’s about being ready for different scenarios: knowing what’s coming, who you’ll need, and what you can realistically deliver. Because behind every “unexpected” staffing crisis, there’s usually a conversation that never happened.

Do the exercise. Ask the questions. You won’t get perfect answers - but you’ll gain visibility. And in a world that changes overnight, visibility beats certainty every time.